What’s in store for Latin America given Trump’s second term? Brace for seismic shifts.
The political dynamics of the United States have historically exerted significant influence on Latin America, shaping the region’s economic and political landscapes. A second Donald J. Trump term as U.S. president will undoubtedly impact Latin America in various ways, with the nature and extent of these effects varying according to each country’s political and economic context.
One of the most prominent themes in U.S.- Latin America relations under Trump have been the immigration policy, which primarily affects Mexico and the Northern Triangle countries – Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador. As immigration is closely tied to another key issue, security, Trump’s strong focus on border security and combating organised crime has centred on cartels in Mexico and the Northern Triangle, which he views as major drivers of migration to the USA.
Economic policy is another critical area of concern. Trump’s protectionist trade stance poses challenges for Latin American countries heavily reliant on exports. Moreover, his administration’s antagonistic approach towards China could strain relations with key players in the region, such as Brazil, whose economy depends significantly on its robust trade ties with Beijing.
Trump’s populist approach and assertive policy positions could intensify pressures on Latin American countries, potentially affecting various economic sectors. However, given the current global context, it is unlikely that Latin America will feature prominently in Trump’s foreign policy priorities. Moreover, there has been no comprehensive strategy for engaging with the region. As a result, the trajectory of U.S.-Latin America relations in the coming years will likely hinge on bilateral political dynamics within Latin American countries and their internal politics.
Mexico
For Mexico, the impact of Trump’s presidency will primarily relate to immigration and economic policy. Immigration has long been a central issue for Trump, and his administration’s stringent policies, including the expansion of the ‘Remain in Mexico’ program and heightened border security measures, placed immense pressure on Mexico to act as a buffer state. A second Trump presidency will likely revive these policies, further straining Mexico’s resources and exacerbating challenges for migrants attempting to transit through the country. Economically, Trump’s protectionist stance poses risks for Mexico, whose economy is deeply intertwined with that of the USA through trade agreements such as the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), a trade deal that replaced the NAFTA agreement. Trump’s emphasis on renegotiating trade terms creates uncertainty for Mexican industries reliant on exports. On the other hand, nearshoring is a growing opportunity for Mexico, as U.S.-China tensions push international companies to shift manufacturing to the country. While this trend could boost Mexico’s economy, uncertainty about judicial reform and the future of the USMCA agreement in 2026 may dampen investment. Trump’s confrontational rhetoric regarding China could force Mexico into difficult trade-offs, as it seeks to balance its economic relationships with both powers.
Beyond these issues, Mexico’s cooperation – or lack thereof – on security matters, including drug cartel activity, could also shape bilateral relations. The interplay between Trump’s domestic agenda and Mexico’s political responses will be crucial in determining the trajectory of U.S.-Mexico relations.
Brazil
With the left-wing government of President Lula and the populist-right opposition led by Trump’s supporter Jair Bolsonaro, Trump’s electoral victory could escalate internal tensions, further deepening Brazil’s political divide. Furthermore, as a regional power and a prominent member of the BRICS, Brazil has often clashed with the U.S. on global governance issues. Economically, Brazil’s relationship with China will continue to be a sensitive issue. With one-third of Brazil’s exports heading to China, particularly soy and beef, Lula has emphasized that Brazil will not let its economic ties with China be undermined. Previously, even Bolsonaro, a China sceptic, found it necessary to adopt a pragmatic approach in this regard. Brazil’s reliance on agricultural exports to China could create tensions with the USA. Moreover, regarding trade, Trump’s protectionist policies could affect Brazil’s exports, particularly in sectors like steel and agriculture, where tariffs or renegotiated agreements might be imposed to prioritise U.S. industries. Conversely, Brazil might find opportunities for collaboration with the U.S. in energy or defence sectors, though such alignment would depend on political synergies.
Argentina
Politically, Trump’s presidency could strengthen U.S. ties with Argentina under Javier Milei’s leadership. Milei, an outspoken libertarian and populist, has publicly expressed admiration for Trump, aligning ideologically on issues such as anti-establishment rhetoric, deregulation, and scepticism of multilateral institutions. This alignment may foster closer bilateral cooperation, especially if both leaders pursue shared goals in economic and political reforms. However, tensions could arise if their agendas diverge on trade or regional alliances.In that sense, Argentina, as a resource-rich nation with a volatile economy, could face challenges under Trump’s protectionist trade policies. Tariffs, or a renewed emphasis on U.S. self-sufficiency, could affect Argentine agricultural exports, particularly soy and beef. Additionally, Trump’s focus on renegotiating trade agreements to prioritise American industries may limit opportunities for deeper trade integration with Argentina.
Geopolitically, Trump’s antagonism toward China also poses a complex dilemma for Argentina. China is a key investor and trading partner in sectors such as agriculture, energy, and infrastructure. Any pressure from the Trump administration to curtail relations with Beijing could strain Argentina’s economic recovery efforts, forcing the country to navigate a delicate balance between its economic needs and the U.S.’s geopolitical interests.
The ‘Tricky Trio’
A second Trump presidency would have varied and significant impacts on Latin American countries beyond the major players such as Mexico, Brazil, and Argentina. Particularly in three countries, Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela, which the U.S. sees as governed by hard-left, authoritarian regimes, and as such have long been at odds with them. These regimes have aligned themselves with global rivals and adversaries of the U.S., such as Russia, China, and Iran, and have remained targets of U.S.-led economic sanctions. Trump’s first presidency marked a more aggressive stance towards some of these countries. He reversed the limited easing of U.S. sanctions on Cuba initiated by the Obama administration and intensified sanctions on Venezuela, particularly in its oil sector. Trump also recognised opposition leader Juan Guaidó as Venezuela’s legitimate president instead of the incumbent Nicolás Maduro and raised the prospect of U.S. military action against the country – although no serious military planning followed. While these policies isolated Maduro, they also deepened Venezuela’s economic crisis without achieving regime change.Looking ahead, a second Trump presidency is likely to continue applying pressure on these regimes, maintaining the hardline stance. This would appeal to his electoral base, including conservative and anti-communist Latino lobby groups. Particularly regarding Venezuela, Trump’s approach would likely continue emphasising sanctions and support for opposition forces. A second Trump term could see a continuation or escalation of these measures, potentially fostering more regional instability and migration.
Conclusion
The trajectory of U.S.-Latin American relations under Trump will depend on several factors. While the USA remains a dominant global and regional power, the region’s growing economic and diplomatic diversification has somewhat reduced its reliance on Washington.Trump’s policies will undoubtedly impact Latin America, even if the region does not rank high on the presidential agenda. Immigration remains the most immediate concern, with Trump proposing aggressive deportation measures and militarized enforcement. Meanwhile, his protectionist stance on global trade and antagonism toward China could disrupt the region’s economic stability, particularly for countries like Brazil, Argentina, and Chile, where Beijing is a key trading partner.
Despite the lack of explicit focus on Latin America in Trump’s policy debates, the global economic and geopolitical strategies of the United States still have the potential to impact the region. However, while the U.S. remains a critical player, Latin America’s ability to diversify partnerships is evidence of the region’s evolving autonomy in navigating global challenges.
This analysis is a contribution made by Maria Andrade, Analyst at SET Advisory.