As Donald J. Trump prepares for his second term as President of the United States, all eyes are on how his administration will engage with Sub-Saharan Africa.
Will Sub-Saharan Africa be forgotten once more by Donald J. Trump’s administration during his second term as President of the United States of America?
The USA had a strong engagement with Africa during President Barack Obama’s administration. This included promoting economic development through the Power Africa initiative that sought to increase access to electricity in the continent and increasing regional stability by backing African Union peacekeeping operations. However, this was followed by a fractured policy and a lack of engagement during Trump’s first term in the White House.
The first Trump administration did have some key policies towards Africa, including the Prosper Africa initiative, which was set up to increase two-way trade between the continent and the USA but has largely been ineffective, and continuing counterterrorism operations in the Horn of Africa and the Sahel. However, Sub-Saharan Africa generally appeared to be the ignored corner of the world during Trump’s 1st presidency.
In his second term, Trump will likely have stronger policies towards Sub-Saharan Africa. It appears almost certain that Trump will visit the continent in his first year in office, something that never happened during his first term! South Africa has just assumed the presidency of the G20, and the USA will take over from them on the 1st of December 2025.Trump has already indicated his intention to attend the November 2024 Johannesburg G20 summit, shortly after his re-election last year.
The Trump administration will likely attempt to reverse the USA’s decrease in influence in the continent, especially in relation to China’s ever-increasing dominance of the extraction of valuable resources. Some of his picks for office, such as for U.S. Secretary of State, the outwardly spoken opponent of the Chinese Communist Party Marco Rubio, show that Trump plans to continue his attempts from his 1st term to diminish China’s global influence.
President Biden’s December 2024 trip to Angola – the first trip by a sitting American President to the country – was focused on the Lobito Corridor rail project linking the mining belts of Zambia and the DRC to the Angolan port of Lobito.The USA is financing elements of the project to the tune of USD 4 billion.
The DRC and Zambia hold a significant portion of the global reserves of critical minerals, with production and mining licences there largely dominated by Chinese companies, many of which are state-owned.The Lobito Corridor is thus a strategic part of the global critical mineral supply chain and given Trump’s known antagonisms towards China and its strategic threats, his administration can be expected to grasp and ‘own’ the US sponsorship of the Lobito Corridor.
The Trump administration’s policy towards the continent is likely to also be influenced by his close relationship with the South African-born Elon Musk. Musk’s companies, including Tesla, are large consumers of African minerals, especially Cobalt from the DRC. Also, Musk is looking to expand the operations of his company Starlink in the continent.
There are a number of insurgencies and conflicts in Africa which have global geo-strategic implications and involvements.It is unclear what the Trump administration’s position will be on these, but they cannot be ignored and will demand attention from the USA.These include the Islamist extremist insurgency across the Sahel region, and the intractable almost never-ending conflict in Somalia between Islamists and the country’s government.
African autocrats will also likely court Trump, who in turn has shown his support for ‘strongman’ leaders. It is therefore likely that the new Trump administration will promote closer links to countries such as Rwanda and Equatorial Guinea.
Trump’s relationship with Rwanda’s leader, Paul Kagame, will be one to watch out for. The two Presidents had cordial relations during Trump’s first term but without much close engagement. However, given Rwanda’s role in supporting rebel groups in the mineral rich eastern DRC, it will be interesting to see if Trump – ever the transactional businessman – will put pressure on Kagame to decrease support for such groups. This would allow for more extensive mining in the region. By doing so Trump might increase American influence in the northern Great Lakes region, which has for the last two decades seen strong inroads by the China and its state-controlled companies.
Another relationship that will require a fine balance is with South Africa. The USA’s relationship with South Africa has become fractured, due to the latter’s closer ties with Russia and the case they brought against Israel for genocide at the International Court of Justice.
As opposed to China, it is impossible to predict if the USA will attempt to diminish Russia’s influence on Africa, much of it based around the supply of military equipment and fighters from the Wagner Group (now renamed the Africa Corps and directly controlled by the Kremlin). A lot will depend on what the Trump administration’s policy will be towards the war in Ukraine. If a peace deal is not agreed due to Russia not accepting its terms, it is possible that the Trump administration may attempt to decrease Russian influence on the continent as retaliation. African leaders being propped up by Russia, such as the Central African Republic’s Faustin-Archange Touadéra, might be a lot more responsive to American rapprochements after seeing the consequences of the withdrawal of Russian support for Syria’s Bashar Al-Assad.
One thing is certain, the Trump administration will not increase aid to the continent.Given Trump’s ‘America first’ populist policy, it would be incredibly damaging politically to his administration to do so. Any new support will likely be military, including continuing operations against Islamist groups such as Boko Haram and Al-Shabaab.
2025 will certainly be an interesting year in American-African relations!
This analysis is a contribution made by Edward Semple, Managing Director at SET Advisory.